Nonstationary temporal response of mountain hemlock growth to climatic variability in the North Cascade Range, Washington, USA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A stationary response of tree radial growth to climatic variables is assumed as a basis for climatic reconstructions and future growth projections in response to climate change. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) trees on the western slopes of the North Cascade Range (Washington, USA) were examined for stability in growth response to climatic influences at a small spatial scale. Moving correlation functions demonstrate that climate–growth interactions are nonstationary over time, alternating between periods of significant and nonsignificant responses. Correlations between growth and winter precipitation have weakened, becoming statistically insignificant in the last decade, but correlations with spring temperature and previous-year summer temperature have strengthened, becoming statistically significant. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences patterns in climate–growth correlations but does not seem to account for the most recent changes in correlation strength. At an interannual scale, growth differs between El Niño Southern Oscillation phases, specifically between El Niño and La Niña years and between La Niña and neutral phase years. The variability in growth response to climate at interannual and interdecadal time frames, especially with the climate changes emerging in recent decades, will challenge the reliability and accuracy of reconstruction and predictive models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".