Variable wind, pack ice, and prey dispersion affect the long‐term adequacy of protected areas for an Arctic sea duck
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With changing climate, delineation of protected areas for sensitive species must account for long-term variability and geographic shifts of key habitat elements. Projecting the future adequacy of protected areas requires knowing major factors that drive such changes, and how readily the animals adjust to altered resources. In the Arctic, the viability of habitats for marine birds and mammals often depends on sea ice to dissipate storm waves and provide platforms for resting. However, some wind conditions (including weak winds during extreme cold) can consolidate pack ice into cover so dense that air-breathing divers are excluded from the better feeding areas. Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) winter among leads (openings) in pack ice in areas where densities of their bivalve prey are quite high. During winter 2009, however, prevailing winds created a large region of continuous ice with inadequate leads to allow access to areas of dense preferred prey. Stable isotope and fatty acid biomarkers indicated that, under these conditions, the eiders did not diversify their diet to include abundant non-bivalve taxa but did add a smaller, less preferred, bivalve species. Consistent with a computer model of eider energy balance, the body fat of adult eiders in 2009 was 33-35% lower than on the same date (19 March) in 2001 when ice conditions allowed access to higher bivalve densities. Ice cover data suggest that the eiders were mostly excluded from areas of high bivalve density from January to March in about 30% of 14 winters from 1998 to 2011. Thus, even without change in total extent of ice, shifts in prevailing winds can alter the areal density of ice to reduce access to important habitats. Because changes in wind-driven currents can also rearrange the dispersion of prey, the potential for altered wind patterns should be an important concern in projecting effects of climate change on the adequacy of marine protected areas for diving endotherms in the Arctic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".