A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
An ocean circulation model for the British Columbia continental shelf is run with future initial conditions and forcing fields downscaled from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program archive. Average seasonal sea surface temperatures for the period 2065 to 2078 are projected to increase by between 0.5° and 2.0°C with respect to analogous averages from 1995 to 2008. Seasonal sea surface salinities are projected to decrease by as much as 2.0 over the same period, though there are some regions where and periods when small increases are projected. Though stronger winter winds result in larger Haida Eddies, slightly stronger summer winds along the western Vancouver Island shelf do not result in appreciable changes to either the cross-shelf upwelling or to the magnitude of Juan de Fuca Eddies or the timing of their formation. However, increased flows are projected in some seasons for the Rose Spit, Middle Bank, and Goose Island Bank eddies. More precipitation over the watersheds emptying into coastal waters produces larger freshwater discharges and, in particular, a stronger estuarine flow in Juan de Fuca Strait and a stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current. Generally increasing winds and decreasing density mean that the winter minus summer range of sea surface heights is projected to increase all along the coast.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it