Large‐scale climatic patterns and area affected by mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present evidence of high spatial synchrony in an area affected by mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae ) across large distances in British Columbia, Canada, in a study of a spatially explicit database of an area affected by MPB‐caused tree mortality for the period 1959–2002. We further show that large‐scale climatic patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and, to a lesser degree, Arctic Oscillation (AO)) are strongly related to the observed MPB synchrony, and that they probably operate through controlling the frequency of extreme cold winter temperatures that affect MPB larvae survival. A smaller portion of the data's variability is linked to the onset of the two largest outbreaks in the studied period and might be attributed to dispersal from outbreak‐prone areas or else to differences in microhabitat (e.g., host availability) in these regions. The onset of a warm PDO phase in 1976 favored MPB outbreaks by reducing the occurrence of extremely low winter temperatures province‐wide. Likewise, the exceptionally high and persistent AO values of the late 1980s and 1990s enhanced MPB activity in the southern and northern parts of the region. Summer warmth cannot be discarded as an important agent at smaller scales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".