Explaining the social gradient in coronary heart disease: comparing relative and absolute risk approaches
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVES: There are contradictory perspectives on the importance of conventional coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in explaining population levels and social gradients in CHD. This study examined the contribution of conventional CHD risk factors (smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes) to explaining population levels and to absolute and relative social inequalities in CHD. This was investigated in an entire population and by creating a low risk sub-population with no smoking, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, and hypertension to simulate what would happen to relative and social inequalities in CHD if conventional risk factors were removed. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population based study of 2682 eastern Finnish men aged 42, 48, 54, 60 at baseline with 10.5 years average follow up of fatal (ICD9 codes 410-414) and non-fatal (MONICA criteria) CHD events. MAIN RESULTS: In the whole population, 94.6% of events occurred among men exposed to at least one conventional risk factor, with a PAR of 68%. Adjustment for conventional risk factors reduced relative social inequality by 24%. However, in a low risk population free from conventional risk factors, absolute social inequality reduced by 72%. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional risk factors explain the majority of absolute social inequality in CHD because conventional risk factors explain the vast majority of CHD cases in the population. However, the role of conventional risk factors in explaining relative social inequality was modest. This apparent paradox may arise in populations where inequalities in conventional risk factors between social groups are low, relative to the high levels of conventional risk factors within every social group. If the concern is to reduce the overall population health burden of CHD and the disproportionate population health burden associated with the social inequalities in CHD, then reducing conventional risk factors will do the job.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.029 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it