Duration of Anticoagulation for the Management of Venous Thromboembolism in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Decision Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: There is practice variation in the duration of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Clinicians must weigh the high risk of recurrent VTE with the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS: We implemented Markov decision analysis to compare the costs and effectiveness of extended anticoagulation vs. time-limited anticoagulation (6 months) among IBD patients with first unprovoked VTE over a 5-year time horizon. In a secondary analysis, we added two strategies in which therapeutic-dose or prophylactic-dose anticoagulation was administered during IBD flares. RESULTS: Compared with time-limited anticoagulation, extended anticoagulation yielded slightly higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (4.40 vs. 4.38) and costs ($21,158 vs. $20,825), and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $15,254/QALY over 5 years. In secondary analysis, pharmacological prophylaxis during IBD flares was associated with the highest QALYs (4.41) and costs ($28,177), but was not cost-effective when compared with extended anticoagulation (ICER=$1,158,717/QALY). Anticoagulation during flares yielded the lowest cost ($19,681) and same QALYs as extended anticoagulation. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, extended anticoagulation yielded higher QALYs than time-limited anticoagulation in 91% of trials and was dominant or cost-effective (<$50,000/QALY) in 72% of trials. When analyzed over a lifetime, extended anticoagulation dominated time-limited anticoagulation with higher effectiveness (18.44 vs. 17.95 QALYs) and lower costs ($94,738 vs. $102,874) and was highly robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that extended anticoagulation may provide marginal benefit over time-limited anticoagulation and should be considered in the management of first unprovoked VTE in IBD. Anticoagulation and prophylaxis during IBD flares are alternative viable strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.018 | 0.037 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".