Predicting curriculum and test performance at age 11 years from pupil background, baseline skills and phonological awareness at age 5 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Phonological awareness tests are amongst the best predictors of literacy and predict outcomes of Key Stage 1 assessment of the National Curriculum in England at age 7. However, it is unknown whether their ability to predict National Curricular outcomes extends to Key Stage 2 assessments given at age 11, or also whether the predictive power of such tests is independent of letter-knowledge. We explored the unique predictive validity of phonological awareness and early literacy measures, and other pupil background measures taken at age 5 in the prediction of English, Maths, and Science performance at age 11. METHOD: Three hundred and eighty-two children from 21 primary schools in one Local Educational Authority were assessed at age 5 and followed to age 11 (Key Stage 2 assessment). Teaching assistants (TAs) administered phonological awareness tasks and early literacy measures. Baseline and Key Stage 2 performance measures were collected by teachers. RESULTS: Phonological awareness was a significant unique predictor of all nine outcome measures after baseline assessment and pupil background measures were first controlled in regression analyses, and continued to be a significant predictor of reading, maths, and science performance, and teacher assessments after early literacy skill and letter-knowledge was controlled. Gender predicted performance in writing, the English test, and English teacher assessment, with girls outperforming boys. CONCLUSIONS: Phonological awareness is a unique predictor of general curricular attainment independent of pupil background, early reading ability and letter-knowledge. Practically, screening of phonological awareness and basic reading skills by school staff in year 1 significantly enhances the capacity of schools to predict curricular outcomes in year 6.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".