Long-Term Statistical Assessment of Frequency Regulation Reserves Policies in the Québec Interconnection
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since 2003, Hydro-Québec Distribution has launched three calls for tenders to procure 3500 MW of wind power. This will bring the projected wind capacity in the Québec Interconnection to 4000 MW in 2015, for about 5% energy and 35% maximum hourly penetration rates. This paper presents two statistical approaches for assessing the additional frequency regulation reserves needed to reliably integrate 3000 MW of wind energy from 23 plants, for which minute/minute output time series were developed over an 11-year period and synchronized with historical load patterns. After description of a generalized dispatch-based approach for separating automatic generation control (AGC) and load-following components, a risk-based allocation method inspired from the BPA 2010 rate case is presented in detail, and then compared with the n × σ approach using the same data set. While the risk-based allocation forecasted AGC and load-following increasing by 1.8% and 20.6% of installed wind capacity, the n × σ criterion resulted in much lower incremental reserves requirements with only 0.4% and 6.8% increases of the AGC (n=4) and load-following (n=2), respectively. In a companion paper, the power grid operations-based simulation approach is presented and its results compared with those of this paper.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it