Hemodialysis access at initiation in the United States, 2005 to 2007: Still “Catheter First”
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the broad consensus that native arteriovenous fistula is the access of choice for hemodialysis, national-level information about vascular access at dialysis initiation has been unavailable in the United States. For incident hemodialysis patients, June 2005 to October 2007 (n=220,157), vascular access type was determined from the new Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Medical Evidence Report (form CMS-2728). Proportions with each type at first dialysis, demographic and clinical associations of each type, and associations between initial access type and survival were assessed. The mean patient age was 63.6 years; 29.4% of patients were African American, and for 44.5%, end-stage renal disease was due to diabetes. Vascular access proportions were: fistula, 13.2% of patients; graft, 4.3%; catheter/maturing fistula, 16.0%; catheter/maturing graft, 3.3%; and catheter alone, 63.2%. Adjusted odds ratios (vs. fistula) of catheter use alone were > or = 1.50 for lack of insurance (1.62 [95% confidence interval 1.62-1.68]), nephrologist care for 0 to 12 months (2.75 [2.69-2.81]), other (2.19 [2.09-2.29]), or unknown (1.53 [1.44-1.63]) cause of renal disease, institutional residence (1.51 [1.45-1.57]), and 7 of 18 end-stage renal disease networks. Over a mean follow-up of 1 year, 26.0% of the study population died. Compared with fistula, adjusted mortality hazards ratios were 1.39 (1.32-1.47) for grafts, 1.49 (1.44-1.55) for catheters/maturing fistulas, 1.74 (1.65-1.84) for catheters/maturing grafts, and 2.18 (2.11-2.26) for catheters alone. While geographic variability is pronounced, vascular access at dialysis inception is typically suboptimal; suboptimal access exhibits a graded association with mortality. Lack of timely access to specialty care appears to limit optimal access.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".