Composite analysis of black duck breeding population surveys in eastern North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Waterfowl are monitored in eastern Canada and the northeastern United States with 2 surveys: a transect survey from fixed‐wing aircraft and a plot survey conducted from helicopters. The surveys vary in extent, but overlap exists in a core area of 9 strata covering portions of all provinces from Ontario east to Newfoundland. We estimated population change for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) and mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) from these surveys using a log‐linear hierarchical model that accommodates differences in sample design and visibility associated with these survey methods. Using a combined analysis of the surveys based on total indicated birds, we estimate the American black duck population to be 901,700 (95% CI: 715,200–1,274,000) in 2011, with 526,900 (95% CI: 357,500–852,300) mallards in the surveyed area. Precision of estimates varies widely by species and region, with transect surveys providing less precise results than plot surveys for black ducks in areas of overlap. The combined survey analysis for black ducks in the eastern survey region produced estimates with an average yearly coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.1% for the entire area and an average CV of 6.9% in the plot survey area. Mallards, which had a more limited distribution in the region, had an average yearly CV of 22.1% over the entire region, and an average CV of 27.7% in the plot survey area. Hierarchical models provide a rich framework for analyzing and combining results from complex survey designs, providing useful spatial and temporal information on population size and change in these economically important species. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".