Instituting a routine varicella vaccination program in Canada: an economic evaluation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: After licensing of a varicella vaccine in Canada in 1998, Health Canada commissioned a study to evaluate options for a vaccination program. The evaluation of a program of vaccination of 12-month-old children, with and without a catch-up program for susceptible 12-year-olds, is presented here. METHODS: An economic model was developed simulating the expected experience, with and without vaccination, of cohorts of children susceptible to varicella. The cohorts were simulated for 70 years, and infection and complication rates were calculated along with the attendant costs, with an assumed vaccine cost of $60. RESULTS: With an 85% coverage rate vaccination is expected to reduce the number of chickenpox cases by approximately two-thirds and varicella-related complications by up to 75%. The overall costs of varicella are expected to drop by >$4 million (1998 Canadian dollars) per 100,000 eligible vaccinees, but costs to the health care system are expected to increase by >$2 million. From the health care system perspective, vaccination would cost approximately $42 per discounted case avoided. INTERPRETATION: Routine varicella vaccination would likely substantially reduce the overall costs of managing chickenpox but would result in an increase in health care expenditures. These findings are consistent with evaluations in other countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".