Preliminary hazard rating for forest tent caterpillar in British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) is a major defoliator of hardwoods throughout North America, including aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). M. disstria has been a major concern in many parts of Canada for the last two decades, but until recently in British Columbia it was considered an aesthetic concern only. However, with the increasing interest in the cultivation of hardwoods for fibre, and more recently for fuel, this insect could become a major concern in hardwood management. Records of past M. disstria outbreaks in British Columbia were summarized. The locations and intensity of six outbreaks were overlaid on biogeoclimatic units to determine which biogeoclimatic zones have experienced repeated outbreaks of M. disstria. Between 1944 and 2003, M. disstria outbreaks have become larger in extent and longer in duration. Analysis indicated that aspen stands in the Boreal White and Black Spruce (BWBS), Sub- Boreal Spruce (SBS) and Interior Cedar-Hemlock (ICH) biogeoclimatic zones have been most frequently attacked. In the BWBS zone, most affected areas (93.3%) were defoliated for only one year (lightly). In the SBS and ICH zones, areas attacked by M. disstria tended to be defoliated two or more consecutive years (40.2% and 56.2%, respectively), and had a greater chance of being more severely defoliated than aspen stands in the BWBS zone. Key words: Malacosoma disstria, forest tent caterpillar, damage, outbreaks, hazard rating
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".