The Last Drop: Climate Change and the Southwest Water Crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hybridization leading to reproductively isolated, novel genotypes is poorly understood as a means of speciation and few empirical examples have been studied. In 1999, a previously non-existent delayed flight of what appeared to be the Canadian tiger swallowtail butterfly, Papilio canadensis, was observed in the Battenkill River Valley, USA. Allozyme frequencies and morphology suggest that this delayed flight was the product of hybridization between Papilio canadensis and its sibling species Papilio glaucus. The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) restriction fragment length polymorphisms presented here indicate that only P. canadensis-like mtDNA occurs in this population, suggesting that introgression likely occurred from hybrid males mating with P. canadensis females. Preliminary studies of this population indicated that delayed post-diapause pupal emergence in this hybrid genotype was the root cause behind the observed delayed flight, which suggests a potential empirical example of a mechanism leading to reproductive isolation. Here we provide further evidence of the role of adult pupal emergence as a reproductive barrier likely leading to reproductive isolation. In particular, we present results from pupal emergence studies using four different spring and two different winter temperature treatments. The results indicate a clear separation of adult emergences between the hybrid population and both parental species. However, our results indicate that exceptionally hot springs are likely to lead to greater potential for overlap between the local parental species, P. canadensis, and this delayed population with hybrid origins. Conversely, our results also show that warmer winters are likely to increase the temporal separation of the hybrid population and the parental species. Finally, we report recently collected evidence that this hybrid population remains morphologically distinct.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".