Measles in Canada Between 2002 and 2013
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background. In 1994, Canada committed to eliminate measles by the year 2000. This report presents the epidemiology of measles in Canada between 2002 and 2013 and its implications in sustaining measles elimination. Methods. Cases included individuals reported to the Canadian Measles and Rubella Surveillance System with confirmed measles. Results. In Canada, 1171 cases of measles were reported between 2002 and 2013 (incidence 0.29 cases per 100 000 population). The annual number of cases ranged from 6 to 752. The majority of cases were unvaccinated (63%) or had an unknown vaccination status (19%). The median age of cases was 14.4 years (range, <1 to 63 years) globally and 14 years when excluding the 2011 outbreak in Quebec where 68% of the 678 cases were 10 to 19 years old. With the exclusion of this outbreak, the incidence was highest in infants (1.0 per 100 000), lower but fairly similar between 1 and 19 years of age (0.2 to 0.4 per 100 000), and there was a substantial decline between 20 and 39 years of age (0.1 per 100 000). There was a significant trend towards a greater annual number of importations over the period. Although importations resulted in no transmission sustained for ≥12 months, 5 chains of transmission had >30 cases. The effective reproductive number between 2002 and 2013 was estimated at 0.86 (95% confidence interval, .81-.92). Conclusions. Canada has maintained elimination between 2002 and 2013, but additional efforts are needed to reduce the proportion of unimmunized individuals and respond to importation events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".