The Evolution of Convective Storms Initiated by an Isolated Mountain Ridge
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The evolution of convective storms over the Black Hills, an isolated mountain ridge in South Dakota and Wyoming and a regional convection hotspot, is investigated using a 10-yr observational climatology and quasi-idealized numerical simulations. Radar-observed diurnally forced mountain-convection events are classified according to their maximum cell-track length and duration, which are quantified using an automated cell-tracking algorithm. Environmental conditions during these events are obtained from operational radiosonde and model-analysis data. These data suggest that mountain-forced convective cells generally struggle to survive in the convectively inhibited flow downwind of the Black Hills. Those cells that do survive downwind prefer environments with strong bulk vertical shear over the 0–6-km layer, which favors organized multicellular or supercellular convection. Under slightly weaker shear, the cells tend to dissipate rapidly as they propagate downwind. Relatively weak winds aloft, when coupled with low-level winds aligned with the long terrain axis, support longer-lived, quasi-stationary cells with flash-flooding potential. The weak winds favor slow cell propagation while the along-ridge flow limits the negative feedbacks of storm outflow on the elevated convergence over the ridge, allowing convection to repeatedly initiate in the same location. The storm evolution is relatively insensitive to the background thermodynamic profile, provided that sufficient moist instability exists to support deep convection. Convection-permitting numerical simulations reinforce that changes in the background wind profile alone can explain the observed variations in cell evolution. They also suggest that the longevity of convective cells downwind of the ridge is sensitive to terrain-induced modifications to the vertical wind shear.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".