Hydrologic and Economic Implications of Climate Change for Typical River Basins of the Agricultural Midwestern United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Midwest is the largest agricultural area of the United States. Historically, the climate there has been suitable for unirrigated farming. However, the specter of climate change has created concerns about the future of Midwestern agriculture, regional fresh water resources and the relationship between the two. Implications of climate change for the agricultural Midwest are revealed in a recent study on two typical agricultural Midwestern watersheds, the Mackinaw River Basin and the upper Sangamon River Basin of central Illinois. Generally in this study a future climate with more frequent droughts is envisioned based on the outcome of one of the major general circulation models, the Canadian Climate Centre model. The climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, low flow frequencies of streams, and the profitability of irrigation, which could be triggered by the climate change, are evaluated. This study shows that the changes in climatic factors of temperature and precipitation tend to reduce crop yields, induce irrigation, and increase low flow frequencies. However, such adverse effects may well be counteracted by the effects of elevated CO2 concentration in atmosphere. Thus, the opposing effects of climate change could very well leave agriculture in central Illinois more or less unchanged.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".