How Much Has the North Atlantic Ocean Overturning Circulation Changed in the Last 50 Years?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Volume transports from six ocean reanalyses are compared with four sets of in situ observations: across the Greenland–Scotland ridge (GSR), in the Labrador Sea boundary current, in the deep western boundary current at 43°N, and in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26°N in the North Atlantic. The higher-resolution reanalyses (on the order of ¼° × ¼°) are better at reproducing the circulation pattern in the subpolar gyre than those with lower resolution (on the order of 1°). Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO)–Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) produce transports at 26°N that are close to those observed [17 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)]. ECCO, version 2, and SODA produce northward transports across the GSR (observed transport of 8.2 Sv) that are 22% and 29% too big, respectively. By contrast, the low-resolution reanalyses have transports that are either too small [by 31% for ECCO-JPL and 49% for Ocean Reanalysis, system 3 (ORA-S3)] or much too large [Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys)]. SODA had the best simulations of mixed layer depth and with two coarse grid long-term reanalyses (DePreSys and ORA-S3) is used to examine changes in North Atlantic circulation from 1960 to 2008. Its results suggest that the AMOC increased by about 20% at 26°N while transport across the GSR hardly altered. The other (less reliable) long-term reanalyses also had small changes across the GSR but changes of +10% and −20%, respectively, at 26°N. Thus, it appears that changes in the overturning circulation at 26°N are decoupled from the flow across the GSR. It is recommended that transport observations should not be assimilated in ocean reanalyses but used for validation instead.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".