Exploratory analysis of correlates of the abundance of rusty blackbirds (<i>Euphagus carolinus</i>) during fall migration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rusty blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has received much attention during the last decade, in part due to drastic population declines. We analyzed data from 15 y of fall migration monitoring at the Observatoire d'oiseaux de Tadoussac (OOT), located at the mouth of the Saguenay River on the north shore of the St. Lawrence River estuary in Quebec, Canada. The trend observed suggest an ongoing decline. Numbers of rusty blackbirds varied considerably between years, with peak movements occurring at 5-y intervals and possibly reflecting high reproductive success for those years. The numbers of adult boreal owls caught and banded at the OOT, and the proportion of juveniles, were negatively and positively correlated with rusty blackbird numbers, respectively. Peaks in rusty blackbird abundance occurred when red-backed voles (Clethrionomys gapperi) were abundant in the eastern boreal forest. Also, rusty blackbird numbers were positively correlated to the annual and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and negatively to the combined precipitation for June, July, and August, suggesting that environmental factors may have contributed both directly and indirectly (through food web processes) to the cyclic variations in abundance observed. Current declines may be exacerbated by NAO fluctuation patterns, that is, more frequent negative indices may negatively affect reproductive success and possibly winter survival.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".