Economic Consequences of Epidemiological Changes in Diabetes in Middle-Income Countries
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To identify the costs and economic consequences of expected changes in the demand for health care services for type 2 diabetes in the three main public institutions of the Mexican health care system. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the costs and epidemiological changes for 2003-2005, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. RESULTS: Comparing the economic impact in 2003 versus 2005 (P < 0.05), there is a 26% increase in financial requirements. The total amount for diabetes in 2005 (in U.S. dollars) will be 317,631,206, dollars including 140,410,816 dollars in direct costs and 177,220,390 dollars in indirect costs. The total direct costs, representing financial requirements to provide health care for expected cases of type 2 diabetes and its main complications in the three main public institutions in Mexico, up to 2005, will be 37,079,587 dollars for the Ministry of Health (or Secretaría de Salud [SSA], serving the uninsured population) and 103,331,235 dollars for the Mexican Social Security Institute, or Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), and the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers, or Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE), both of which serve the insured population. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that changes in the demand for health care services for patients with diabetes will continue with an increasing trend, mainly in the insured population. In economic terms, the results of direct and indirect costs are one of the main challenges to be solved to decrease the economic burden that diabetes represents for the population, the health care institutions, and for society as a whole.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it