Two-track diffusion and central bank embeddedness: the politics of Euro adoption in Hungary and the Czech Republic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Post-communist Europe's increasing convergence with the European Union has generated contentious debate over the underlying impetus for this change. Did the material incentives and implicit coercion inherent in the EU accession process prod East Central European leaders onwards in their reform efforts, or did they adopt new institutions because of the deeper effects of persuasion and socialization? This article uses central banking to make two arguments in relation to this debate. First, differently situated domestic actors may support EU-style institutional convergence in the same issue-area for different reasons; while external incentives may primarily motivate one group, another may fully accept and internalize the underlying EU norms. Such two-track diffusion is more likely to occur when an epistemic community drives the domestic socialization process, because under these conditions socialization can advance within a small group or single institution without requiring active encouragement from other domestic actors. Second, problematic consequences of two-track diffusion appear only after EU accession becomes assured, relaxing or removing external incentives for compliance. At that point, socialized actors may find that they no longer enjoy wider domestic support. I demonstrate this through an examination of Czech and Hungarian central bankers' efforts to adopt the Euro quickly despite the potential risks involved. The socialized central bankers took this position out of weakness, not strength, viewing the external constraint of Euro adoption as the only way to ensure conservative fiscal and monetary policies after EU accession.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".