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Projecting future fish supplies using stock dynamics and demand

2006· article· en· W1998780427 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Roehlano Briones

Bibliographic record

VenueFish and Fisheries · 2006
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicMarine and fisheries research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersGlobal Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, JohannesburgNorth Pacific Marine Science Organization
KeywordsStock (firearms)SustainabilitySupply and demandEconomicsNatural resource economicsFish stockClimate changePopulationDemand managementPopulation dynamics of fisheriesFisheryMicroeconomicsFish <Actinopterygii>EcologyMacroeconomicsEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Supply–demand models, which are commonly used in food policy analysis, have been recently applied to generate projections of future fish supplies. However, these models routinely ignore stock dynamics; hence, threats to sustainability due to declining fish stocks are addressed, at best, by exogenous changes in resource productivity. Such a device is ad hoc , as it is unclear whether the assumed shifts are consistent with known patterns of population adjustment. On the other hand, bioeconomic models incorporate stock dynamics, but typically omit price adjustment arising from the interaction of demand and supply. An applied supply–demand model with stock dynamics combines the strengths of both approaches. However, data problems constrain the formulation of such a model. Instead, this study presents a prototype bioeconomic supply–demand model. Simulations show trends in fish supply that fail to appear in either supply–demand or bioeconomic models. Secular demand growth causes initial production growth, followed by stagnation, and then persistent decline. Moreover, under constant pressure from rising demand, capture production fails to recover completely from adverse population shock (such as may be induced by climate change). The prototype model highlights the potential usefulness of an applied bioeconomic supply–demand model for food policy and fisheries management, and provides a template for future work.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.342
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.220
Teacher spread0.209 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations9
Published2006
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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