The World Economy: Economic downturn in Asia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent economic developments in Asia have proved significantly worse than anticipated. Year-on-year GDP growth in China slowed to 6.8 per cent in the final quarter of 2008, the slowest rate of growth since 1991 and well below the government's target rate of growth of 8 per cent that is required to maintain a stable employment rate. It is difficult to establish the source of the Chinese slowdown with the available data. Fixed capital investment continued to expand rapidly, and the trade surplus in value terms rose to record high levels in the final quarter of the year. This suggests that consumption was weak, although retail sales figures indicate strong growth in the final quarter of the year. We have assumed that the slowdown observed in the fourth quarter was driven primarily by domestic demand. The collapse in global trade this year will have a significant impact on Chinese exports, given that nearly 50 per cent of Chinese goods exports are in the machinery and transport equipment sector. We expect GDP growth to average about 5½ per cent this year, with growth reverting above 8 per cent per annum only in 2012.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".