Ten-year follow-up of the ‘minimal MRI lesion’ subgroup from the original CHAMPS Multiple Sclerosis Prevention Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and characteristic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions are at high risk for multiple sclerosis (MS). However, patients with a minimal MRI lesion burden (a low T2-hyperintense [low T2] lesion count) may have borderline formal diagnostic criteria, presenting a clinical management challenge. OBJECTIVE: Compare the 10-year disease progression of patients with low and higher T2 lesion counts treated over most intervals. METHODS: CIS patients from the original CHAMPS MS trial were retrospectively assigned to low-T2 (first quartile; 2-8 lesions) or higher-T2 (second through fourth quartiles; ≥ 9 lesions) groups using baseline T2 lesion counts. The 5- and 10-year open-label extension of CHAMPS (CHAMPIONS) evaluated conversion to clinically definite MS (CDMS), MRI activity, relapses, and disability. RESULTS: The vast majority of patients showed new disease activity by MRI and/or clinical criteria at 10 years (low-T2 86%; higher-T2 98%). Fewer low-T2 than higher-T2 patients developed CDMS (40% vs. 63%; p = 0.013); low-T2 patients also had fewer new brain lesions, less brain volume loss, and less disability progression. CONCLUSION: CIS patients with low T2 lesion counts show continued disease activity. However, all assessments of disease progression over 10 years indicated a significantly less severe disease course for low-T2 patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".