Flooding affects dispersal decisions in Piping Plovers (<i>Charadrius melodus</i>) in prairie Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Flooding can cause widespread nest failure and chick mortality in sandbar-and beach-nesting waterbirds, particularly when human activity has either altered natural hydrology or limited available nesting habitat. Such widespread reproductive failure could increase breeding-season dispersal, leading to the abandonment of established nesting sites. We examined how annual movement ψ varied by sex, reproductive success, and flooding in three Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) breeding areas in Saskatchewan during 2002–2009, using a multistate capture-mark-recapture model in Program MARK (n = 782). On average, female Piping Plovers were twice as likely as males to disperse and both sexes were more likely to disperse following years of poor versus moderate reproductive success (minimum to maximum values: ψno-fledglings, 0.0054–0.0998 vs. ψtwo-fledglings, 0.0017–0.0607). In addition, breeding Piping Plovers exhibited higher dispersal following flood years, even in years of moderate reproductive success (minimum to maximum values: ψmales-flood, 0.0025–0.0653 vs. ψmales-noflood, 0.0019–0.0399; and ψfemales-flood, 0.0092–0.1089 vs. ψfemales-no flood, 0.0070–0.0666). Consecutive floods could force Piping Plovers to nest at artificially high densities in new habitats that may be ill-suited to reproductive success. Given the benefits of site familiarity to reproductive success and survival, we recommend that conservation planning consider dispersal of breeding adults, in addition to nests and chicks, when water levels are managed at nesting locations used by Piping Plovers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".