Sea level and circulation variability of the Gulf of Carpentaria: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the adjacent deep ocean
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[1] The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a significant contributing factor to intraseasonal variability in both the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and ocean. Sea level and circulation variations in the Gulf of Carpentaria (northern Australia) and the coastal regions of the northeastern Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific have been shown to be related to the MJO. A nonlinear barotropic numerical model, validated with local tide gauge data, is used to study the Gulf of Carpentaria from 1979 to 2009. It is shown that the model reproduces well the seasonal cycle of sea level as well as intraseasonal variations and their seasonal modulations. Intraseasonal variability is shown to be driven by surface wind stress that is closely related to the MJO. The model is next used to remove the local wind effect from the tide gauge data, resulting in a low-frequency residual signal. This low-frequency signal is interpreted in terms of larger-scale modes of variability of the adjacent shelf seas and the Indian and Pacific oceans through comparison with climatological indices, correlations with regional sea level measured by altimeters, and Hovmöller diagrams. It is shown that this signal is generated in the Pacific and related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The implications for predictability and forecasting in the Gulf of Carpentaria on intraseasonal timescales are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".