Molecular complexity of successive bacterial epidemics deconvoluted by comparative pathogenomics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the fine-structure molecular architecture of bacterial epidemics has been a long-sought goal of infectious disease research. We used short-read-length DNA sequencing coupled with mass spectroscopy analysis of SNPs to study the molecular pathogenomics of three successive epidemics of invasive infections involving 344 serotype M3 group A Streptococcus in Ontario, Canada. Sequencing the genome of 95 strains from the three epidemics, coupled with analysis of 280 biallelic SNPs in all 344 strains, revealed an unexpectedly complex population structure composed of a dynamic mixture of distinct clonally related complexes. We discovered that each epidemic is dominated by micro- and macrobursts of multiple emergent clones, some with distinct strain genotype-patient phenotype relationships. On average, strains were differentiated from one another by only 49 SNPs and 11 insertion-deletion events (indels) in the core genome. Ten percent of SNPs are strain specific; that is, each strain has a unique genome sequence. We identified nonrandom temporal-spatial patterns of strain distribution within and between the epidemic peaks. The extensive full-genome data permitted us to identify genes with significantly increased rates of nonsynonymous (amino acid-altering) nucleotide polymorphisms, thereby providing clues about selective forces operative in the host. Comparative expression microarray analysis revealed that closely related strains differentiated by seemingly modest genetic changes can have significantly divergent transcriptomes. We conclude that enhanced understanding of bacterial epidemics requires a deep-sequencing, geographically centric, comparative pathogenomics strategy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".