Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".