Prognostic Factors for Early Severity in a Childhood Multiple Sclerosis Cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The goal was to identify prognostic factors for an early severe course in a cohort of patients with childhood-onset multiple sclerosis, for the construction of a predictive tool. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 197 children from the French Kid Sclérose en Plaques neuropediatric cohort with relapsing/remitting multiple sclerosis beginning before the age of 16 years. Patients were included from 1990 to 2003. We used multivariate survival analysis (Cox model) to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical, MRI, and biological covariates at onset for the occurrence of a third attack or severe disability ("severity" outcome). RESULTS: The cohort was monitored for a mean of 5.5 +/- 3.6 years. The "severity" outcome was recorded for 144 patients (73%). The risk of severity was higher for girls, for a time between the first and second attacks of < 1 year, for childhood-onset multiple sclerosis MRI criteria at onset, for an absence of severe mental state changes at onset, and for a progressive course. A derived childhood-onset multiple sclerosis potential index for early severity was found to have a positive predictive value for severity of > 35% for the upper 2 quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical and MRI prognostic factors for early severity that were identified were used as the basis of a predictive tool, which will be validated in another cohort. This tool should make it possible to identify subgroups at risk of early severe disease and should facilitate therapeutic studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".