Bibliographic record
Abstract
Editor's column Forty years ago, the global oil market faced shortages, price shocks, and unanswered questions about security of supply. The global oil landscape is drastically different today, and many of the changes grew out of the events that occurred 4 decades ago. The most dramatic recent change is the growth in US production, revitalized by shale and tight oil output. The United States has drastically reduced its reliance on imported oil and is predicted to soon be the largest producer in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. US oil production has grown more than 50% in the past 5 years, and petroleum imports have fallen from a high of 60% in 2005 to 35% today, according to IHS CERA. That 35% figure is the same as in 1973, when the so-called Arab oil embargo jolted the US and other developed countries into realizing the significance of their dependence on oil supplies from the Middle East and the political and economic ramifications of that reliance. In addition to oil, US natural gas production has risen by a third since 2005, and shale gas now accounts for more than 40% of total gas output. Long thought a reliable future customer of natural gas, the US is now retrofitting import terminals into gas export facilities. The 1973 oil embargo—along with consumer governments’ reactive policies such as price controls—helped create gasoline shortages and political panic. It also spawned the encouragement of technological innovation and the opening of new frontiers for oil exploration and production. Developments in the North Sea, Alaska, deepwater US Gulf of Mexico and west Africa, and Canadian oil sands, as well as the growth of other non-OPEC production followed. Since 1973, OPEC production has remained relatively flat at 30 million BOPD, while non-OPEC production has doubled from 27 million BOPD. The crisis also led to increased consumption efficiency and research into alternative forms of energy. After the oil crisis, the leading consuming countries created the International Energy Agency to help guide the need to increase energy security and developed initiatives, such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to guard against shortages and potential price spikes. While OPEC members and national oil companies (NOCs) have lost market share since that time, they still own the vast majority of the world’s reserves and are much less beholden to private international oil companies (IOCs). NOCs have become much more technically and financially savvy, calling the shots inside their countries and competing head to head outside their countries. NOCs no longer have to rely on large operators to develop their resources. They have the ability to manage projects and apply the latest technology, or can seek help from the large service companies, which are increasingly offering one-stop shop project expertise.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.027 | 0.023 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.153 | 0.105 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".