Discontinuity in the Fijian Archaeological Record Supported by a Bayesian Radiocarbon Model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Fijian archaeological record is segmented into a series of phases based on distinctive transformations in ceramic forms. Interpretations of the mid-sequence (∼1500–1300 cal BP) transition between the Fijian Plainware phase and the Navatu phase are contentious, with alternative explanations of population replacement versus internal processes of culture change. We present and analyze a series of Fijian Plainware and Navatu phase AMS radiocarbon dates acquired from superimposed but stratigraphically separated occupation floors at the Sigatoka Sand Dunes site on the southwest coast of Viti Levu. Employing an OxCal Bayesian sequential model, we seek to date the temporal span for each occupation as well as the interval of time occurring between occupation floors. The latter is estimated to be 0–43 calendar years at 2σ probability. The magnitude of ceramic and other differences between the Fijian Plainware and Navatu phase occupations at Sigatoka is substantive. We conclude that the abruptness of this change can be explained only by exogenous replacement at the Sigatoka site.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it