Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study provides an assessment of changes in the occurrence frequency of four types of adverse-weather (freezing precipitation, blowing snow, fog, and low ceilings) and no-weather (i.e., no precipitation or visibility obscuration) events as observed at 15 Canadian Arctic stations of good hourly weather observations for 1953–2004. The frequency time series were subjected to a homogenization procedure prior to a logistic regression–based trend analysis. The results show that the frequency of freezing precipitation has increased almost everywhere across the Canadian Arctic since 1953. Rising air temperature in the region has probably resulted in more times that the temperature is suitable for freezing precipitation. On the contrary, the frequency of blowing snow occurrence has decreased significantly in the Canadian Arctic. The decline is most significant in spring. Changes in fog and low ceiling (LC) occurrences have similar patterns and are most (least) significant in summer (autumn). Decreases were identified for both types of events in the eastern region in all seasons. In the southwest, however, the fog frequency has increased significantly in all seasons, while the LC frequency has decreased significantly in spring and summer. The regional mean rate of change in the frequency of the four types of adverse weather was estimated to be 7%–13% per decade. The frequency of no-weather events has also decreased significantly at most of the 15 sites. The decrease is most significant and extensive in autumn. Comparison with the adverse-weather trends above indicates that the decline in no-weather occurrence (i.e., increase in weather occurrence) is not the result of an increase in blowing snow or fog occurrence; it is largely the result of the increasing frequency of freezing precipitation and, most likely, other types of precipitation as well. This is consistent with the reported increases in precipitation amount and more frequent cyclone activity in the lower Canadian Arctic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".