Severe paediatric ulcerative colitis: incidence, outcomes and optimal timing for second-line therapy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite the predominance of extensive disease in children with ulcerative colitis, data concerning severe paediatric ulcerative colitis are sparse. We reviewed rates and predictors of response to intravenous-corticosteroid therapy in a single-centre cohort with long-term follow-up. METHODS: 99 children (49% males; age 2-17 years) were hospitalised (1991-2000) for treatment of severe ulcerative colitis (90% extensive; 49% new onset ulcerative colitis). Clinical, laboratory and radiographic data were reviewed. A population-based subset was used to assess incidence. Predictors of corticosteroid response were analysed using univariate and multivariate analyses at days 3 and 5 of therapy. Colectomy rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. RESULTS: 28% (95% CI, 23 to 34%) of children with ulcerative colitis resident in the Greater Toronto Area required admission for intravenous corticosteroid therapy, of whom 53 (53%; 95% CI, 44 to 63%) responded. Several predictors were associated with corticosteroid failure, but in multivariable modelling only C-reactive protein [OR = 3.5 (1.4 to 8.4)] and number of nocturnal stools [OR = 3.2 (1.6 to 6.6)] remained significant at both days 3 and 5. The Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI), Travis and Lindgren's indices strongly predicted non-response. Radiographically, the upper range of colonic luminal width was 40 mm in children younger than 11 years versus 60 mm in older patients. Cumulative colectomy rates at discharge, 1 year and 6 years were 42%, 58% and 61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Children with ulcerative colitis commonly experience at least one severe exacerbation. Response to intravenous corticosteroids is poor. The PUCAI, determined at day 3 (>45 points) should be used to screen for patients likely to fail corticosteroids and at day 5 (>70 points) to dictate the introduction of second-line therapies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".