Assessing dendroecological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks on <i>Nothofagus pumilio</i> in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examined the use of dendroecological techniques for detecting past defoliations caused by Ormiscodes amphimone Fabricius (Saturniidae) in Nothofagus pumilio (Poepp. et Endl.) Krasser forests in northwestern Patagonia. We evaluated the suitability of the conifer Austrocedrus chilensis (D. Don) Pic. Serm. et Bizarri as a nonhost climate control for reconstructing Ormiscodes outbreaks on N. pumilio. Additionally, we assessed the effectiveness of three alternative procedures to detect past outbreaks: the use of a regional host chronology (instead of the nonhost chronology), the detection of pointer years (i.e., extremely narrow tree rings caused by defoliation), and the use of a morphological tree-ring signature associated with defoliation. Although differences in tree-ring growth response to climate between N. pumilio and A. chilensis did not support the use of the latter species as a reliable climatic control in most of our study area, the alternative procedures were effective in detecting past defoliation events. Based on the performance of the methods assessed here, we designed and tested a protocol for reconstructing past Ormiscodes defoliations on N. pumilio stands. Our results reinforce the need to conduct explicit comparisons of growth responses to climatic variability for host and potential nonhost species on a site-specific basis as well as the advantages of using multiple independent methods to more accurately detect past insect outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".