Effects of substorms on the stormtime ring current index <i>Dst</i>
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. There has been some discussion in recent times regarding whether or not substorm expansive phase activity plays any role of importance in the formation of the stormtime ring current. I explore this question using the Kp index as a proxy for substorm expansive phase activity and the Dst index as a proxy for symmetric ring current strength. I find that increases in Dst are mildly related to the strength of substorm expansive phase activity during the development of the storm main phase. More surprisingly, I find that the strength of Dst during the storm recovery phase is positively correlated with the strength of substorm expansive phase activity. This result has an important bearing on the question of how much the Dst index reflects activity other than that of the stormtime symmetric ring current strength for which it is supposed to be a proxy.Key words: Ionosphere (electric fields and currents) - Magnetospheric physics (current systems; storms and substorms)
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.012 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it