MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2013485523 · doi:10.1111/1540-5982.00143

Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect

2002· article· fr· W2013485523 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Russell Hillberry

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · 2002
Typearticle
Languagefr
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal trade and economics
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCommodityEconomicsAggregate (composite)EconometricsBorder effectAggregate dataMonetary economicsInternational economicsInternational tradeStatisticsMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Borders affect the composition, not only the level, of interregional trade. In disaggregated U.S. Commodity Flow data, border effects vary substantially across commodities. Substantial border–induced compositional change suggests the possibility that standard estimates suffer from aggregation bias arising from endogenous industry location patterns and the presence of zero observations in commodity–level trade. Adjusting for these effects reduces the estimate of the aggregate border effect from 20.9 to 5.7. JEL Classification: F14, F15 Biais d’agrégation, changement de composition, et effet de frontières. Les frontières affectent la composition et pas seulement le volume de commerce inter‐régional. Une analyse des données désagrégées des flux de commerce de biens des Etats‐Unis montre que l’effet de frontières varie substantiellement selon les biens. Le changement de composition du commerce engendré par les frontières suggère la possibilité que les estimations usuelles souffrent d’un biais d’agrégation résultant des patterns de localisation industrielle endogènes et de la présence d’observations nulles dans le commerce de certains biens. Un ajustement pour tenir compte de ces effets suggère que les effets de frontières passent de 20.9 à 5.7.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.021
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.085
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.021
Threshold uncertainty score0.112

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0210.085
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.003
Bibliometrics0.0020.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0030.002
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0090.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.273
GPT teacher head0.184
Teacher spread0.089 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations28
Published2002
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueCanadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économiqueSame topicGlobal trade and economicsFrench-language works237,207