Survival Rate of the Long-tailed Jaeger at Alert, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In long-lived animals, survival rate is a key demographic parameter affecting population dynamics. The objective of this study was to estimate the apparent survival rate of adult Long-tailed Jaegers (Stercorarius longicaudus) breeding at one of the most northerly sites on earth, northern Ellesmere Island, Canada. Because of the large temporal fluctuations in numbers of lemmings, their primary food source during the summer, we also investigated the effect of annual variations in lemming abundance on survival rate. Analysis was based on 336 individuals marked as adults over 11 years with metal and color bands and capture—mark—recapture techniques. There was strong support for a model with two age classes, as survival of newly marked birds was 18% lower than that of previously marked ones. This difference could be due to a true age effect (if a high proportion of young adults was present in our initial samples) or, perhaps more likely, to the presence of transient individuals in the population. The estimated probability of apparent annual survival of local birds (corrected for color-band loss) was 0.91, comparable to values for other seabirds, and was constant over time. We detected a weak trend for a decrease in apparent survival rate of newly marked birds in years of high lemming abundance but no effect on the survival of previously marked birds. This suggests that conditions at sea during the nonbreeding season may be more important in affecting annual survival. A new longevity record of 22 years was established for the species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".