Elective and emergency abdominal surgery in patients 90 years of age or older
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined perioperative outcomes in nonagenarians undergoing abdominal surgery, and fewer have reported on 1-year mortality. Our objectives were to determine the outcomes of abdominal surgery in nonagenarians and to assess the performance of Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (p- POSSUM) as predictors of mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of all patients 90 years and older who underwent abdominal surgery between 2000 and 2007 at a tertiary care hospital. RESULTS: We included 145 patients (median age 91, range 90-101 yr). The most common diagnoses were colorectal cancer (19.3%) and hernias (19.3%), and the most common procedures were bowel resection with anastomosis (25.5%) and hernia repair (18.6%). Overall in-hospital mortality was 15.2% (20.8% in the emergent group and 9.6% in the elective group; p = 0.06). The 1-year mortality (49.1% v. 27.8%; p = 0.016), complication (81.9% v. 61.6%; p = 0.007) and intensive care unit admission rates (44.4% v. 11.0%; p < 0.001) were significantly higher among emergent than elective surgical patients. The operative indications and procedures associated with the highest in-hospital mortality were large bowel obstruction (42.3%) and bowel resection with anastomosis (27.0%). Both the POSSUM and p-POSSUM scoring systems significantly overpredicted mortality, particularly in higher risk groups. CONCLUSION: Nonagenarians undergoing abdominal surgery have substantial operative morbidity and mortality, particularly in emergent surgical cases. Nearly 50% of patients who undergo emergency procedures die within 1 year after surgery. The POSSUM and p-POSSUM scoring systems were not reliable predictors of in-hospital mortality.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it