Explaining Local Campaign Intensity: The Canadian General Election of 2008
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. There is considerable evidence that local campaign activity is positively related both to a party's constituency level vote share and to voter participation rates. In this article we consider the degree of variance of local campaign intensity at the constituency level in the Liberal and New Democratic parties in the 2008 Canadian federal election and consider the variables that may explain this variance. Utilizing data collected through a post-election mail-back survey of candidates, we find significant variance in local campaign activity and identify six factors that influence it. These are an objective measure of the local candidate's chance for victory in the constituency, the candidate's subjective view of their chances, whether the candidate was challenged for the local nomination, how involved the candidate is in his/her local community, whether the candidate contested the prior election and whether party notables from outside the constituency campaigned in the riding. Résumé. Les preuves sont considérables au fait que l'activité dans les campagnes locales correspond à la part des votes dans la circonscription électorale ainsi qu'à la participation électorale. Dans cet article nous considérons le degré de variance de l'intensité des campagnes locales des partis Libéral et Nouveau Démocratique durant l'élection fédérale Canadienne 2008 et examinons les données qui expliquent la variation. En utilisant les données recueillies par des questionnaires postélectoraux des candidats retournés par la poste, nous trouvons une variance significative dans l'activité des campagnes locales et nous identifions six facteurs qui l'influencent. Ils sont: une mesure objective des chances de victoire du candidat, l'impression subjective du candidat de ses chances de gagner, si le candidat était mis au défi dans la nomination locale, la participation du candidat dans sa communauté locale, si le candidat avait contesté l'élection précédente, et si les notables du parti en dehors de la circonscription faisaient campagne pour le candidat dans sa circonscription.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".