Subevent structure of large earthquakes—A ground‐motion perspective
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Our ability to predict ground motions from future earthquakes hinges on the accurate modeling of the radiation from the earthquake source. A successful approach to modeling earthquake radiation has been to represent faults as a series of discrete, independently‐rupturing subfaults, although their physical interpretation has remained largely unclear. Our simulation of ground motions from twenty‐six well‐recorded moderate‐to‐large earthquakes substantiates the hypothesis that large ruptures are made up of a sequence of smaller subevents. The size of a subevent follows a simple linear relationship with the size of the earthquake fault in an apparently deterministic manner. The strength of the high‐frequency radiation is controlled by the maximum slip velocity, which varies stochastically over a small range. Both the characteristic subevent size and the slip velocity appear to be region‐independent, indicating a remarkable uniformity in earthquake source properties. This observation helps to reduce the uncertainty in ground‐motion prediction by constraining its essential and previously ambiguous parameters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".