Spatiotemporal variability in tree and stand mortality caused by spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Quebec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We evaluated spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak effects in nine study areas (60–86 ha each) located in the boreal forest of eastern Quebec (Canada). In each area, spruce budworm outbreak effects were measured from vegetation plots, dominant canopy and understory tree age structures, retrospective analysis of aerial photographs, defoliation records, and host tree growth reductions (dendrochronology). Large-scale synchronous outbreaks were detected across the region around the years 1880, 1915, 1950, and 1980. Overall, contrarily to what was expected for a region where host species (balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), Picea spp.) content is relatively high, these spruce budworm outbreaks seemed to have a relatively minor influence on stand dynamics, with the exception of the most recent outbreak (1980). This outbreak resulted in major stand mortality in the southern part of the region and favored the establishment of extensive tracts of young even-aged stands with few residual mature trees. This very abrupt increase in outbreak severity compared with earlier outbreaks, perhaps due to climatic or random factors, suggests that historical trends in successive outbreak severity should be extrapolated very cautiously and that the study of several outbreak cycles is needed to establish a range of natural variability that can be used to develop an ecosystem forest management strategy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".