Nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro‐Atlantic winter climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous studies have suggested a lack of robustness over the Euro‐Atlantic sector in the extratropical teleconnection response to ENSO. We use a simple AGCM to show that during the 20 years before and after the late 1970's, the ENSO signal leaving the tropics has the character of a wave train that is similar to the PNA, but is much stronger and penetrates further poleward in the post 1970s period. We also find that the synchronous extratropically‐forced model response is almost the reverse in the post‐ compared to the pre‐late 1970s period. We argue that the change in the signal leaving the tropics is due to the sensitivity of the tropically‐forced signal to changes in the spatial pattern of the tropical forcing. The extent to which the extratropically‐forced response is itself dependent on the tropical forcing, or simply the result of chance, is not clear.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".