Testing the assumptions for the analysis of survival data arising from a prevalent cohort study with follow-up
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In a prevalent cohort study with follow-up subjects identified as prevalent cases are followed until failure (defined suitably) or censoring. When the dates of the initiating events of these prevalent cases are ascertainable, each observed datum point consists of a backward recurrence time and a possibly censored forward recurrence time. Their sum is well known to be the left truncated lifetime. It is common to term these left truncated lifetimes "length biased" if the initiating event times of all the incident cases (including those not observed through the prevalent sampling scheme) follow a stationary Poisson process. Statistical inference is then said to be carried out under stationarity. Whether or not stationarity holds, a further assumption needed for estimation of the incident survivor function is the independence of the lifetimes and their accompanying truncation times. That is, it must be assumed that survival does not depend on the calendar date of the initiating event. We show how this assumption may be checked under stationarity, even though only the backward recurrence times and their associated (possibly censored) forward recurrence times are observed. We prove that independence of the lifetimes and truncation times is equivalent to equality in distribution of the backward and forward recurrence times, and exploit this equivalence as a means of testing the former hypothesis. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the power and Type 1 error rate of our proposed tests, which include a bootstrap procedure that takes into account the pairwise dependence between the forward and backward recurrence times, as well as the potential censoring of only one of the members of each pair. We illustrate our methods using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. We also point out an equivalence of the problem presented here to a non-standard changepoint problem.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".