Modeling hydrothermal regimes and potential impacts of climate change on permafrost within the South Mackenzie Plain, Northwest Territories, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract: Hydrothermal processes are key components of permafrost dynamics and hydrological and carbon cycles in northern forest ecosystems. A forest hydrology model, ForHyM, was used to evaluate these processes by determining how the depth and duration of frost penetration into the soil would vary daily over the course of several decades. This was done for chosen upland/wetland conditions within the Mackenzie Plain south of Fort Simpson, where permafrost is currently sporadic to discontinuous. The model calculations were done using daily weather records from November 1963 to 2010, starting with a hypothetical no-frost condition within the soil and subsoil. Model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured temperatures at different soil depths (upland and peat plateau modelling, R2 = 0.95 and 0.94, respectively). It was found that well-drained upland forests within the general area would experience deep and complete freeze—thaw cycles each year. In contrast, poorly drained wetlands would develop gradually deepening permafrost that would at first stabilize in depth over the course of 10 to 20 y, with thaw depth limited to <1 m each year. However, recent increases in recorded air temperature (more so in winter than in summer) would destabilize the permafrost layer, and this would especially occur in areas with insufficient surface insulation by local peat, moss, forest litter, and snow accumulations. These estimates are consistent with (i) reported thawing depths and (ii) the widening encroachment of collapse scars towards the poorly drained portions of the South Mackenzie Plain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".