Parameter estimation of a building system model and impact of estimation error on closed-loop performance
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predictive-control methods have been recently employed for demand-response control of building and district-level HVAC systems. Such approaches rely on models and parameter estimates to meet comfort constraints and to achieve the theoretical system-efficiency gains. In this paper we present a methodology that establishes achievable targets for control-model parameter estimation errors based on closed-loop performance sensitivity. The control algorithm is designed as a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) that uses perturbed building-model parameters. We perform simulations to estimate the dependency of energy cost and constraint infringement time on the magnitude of these perturbations. The simulation results are used to define targets for the parameter estimation errors, which in turn are applied to specify the character of excitation and model structure used for identification. We design a parameter estimator and perform Monte-Carlo simulations for a model that includes sensor noise and load uncertainty. The distribution of the estimation errors are used to demonstrate that the established targets are met.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it