Spatial and temporal covariability in early ocean survival of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) along the west coast of North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Knowledge of the spatial and temporal extent of covariation in survival during the critical ocean entry stage will improve our understanding of how changing ocean conditions influence salmon productivity and management. We used data from the Pacific coastwide coded-wire tagging program to investigate local and regional patterns of ocean survival of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Central Valley of California to southeastern Alaska from 1980–2006. Ocean survival of fish migrating as subyearlings covaried strongly from Vancouver Island to California. Short-term correlations between adjacent regions indicated this covariability increased, beginning in the early 1990s. Chinook salmon survivals exhibited a larger spatial scale of variability (50% correlation scale: 706 km) than those reported for other northeast Pacific Ocean salmon. This scale is similar to that of environmental variables related to ecosystem productivity, such as summer upwelling (50% correlation scale: 746 km) and sea surface temperature (50% correlation scale: 500–600 km). Chinook salmon ocean survival rates from southeastern Alaska and south of Vancouver Island were not inversely correlated, in contrast to earlier observations based on catch data, but note that our data differ in temporal and spatial coverage from those studies. The increased covariability in Chinook salmon ocean survival suggests that the marine phase contributes little to the reduction in risk across populations attributable to the portfolio effect. In addition, survival of fish migrating as yearlings from the Columbia River covaried with Chinook salmon survival from the northernmost regions, consistent with our understanding of their migration patterns.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".