Validity of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) acute coronary syndrome prediction model for six month post-discharge death in an independent data set
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the validity of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) prediction model for death six months after discharge in all forms of acute coronary syndrome in an independent dataset of a community based cohort of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Independent validation study based on clinical data collected retrospectively for a clinical trial in a community based population and record linkage to administrative databases. SETTING: Study conducted among patients from the EFFECT (enhanced feedback for effective cardiac treatment) study from Ontario, Canada. PATIENTS: Randomly selected men and women hospitalised for AMI between 1999 and 2001. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Discriminatory capacity and calibration of the GRACE prediction model for death within six months of hospital discharge in the contemporaneous EFFECT AMI study population. RESULTS: Post-discharge crude mortality at six months for the EFFECT study patients with AMI was 7.0%. The discriminatory capacity of the GRACE model was good overall (C statistic 0.80) and for patients with ST segment elevation AMI (STEMI) (0.81) and non-STEMI (0.78). Observed and predicted deaths corresponded well in each stratum of risk at six months, although the risk was underestimated by up to 30% in the higher range of scores among patients with non-STEMI. CONCLUSIONS: In an independent validation the GRACE risk model had good discriminatory capacity for predicting post-discharge death at six months and was generally well calibrated, suggesting that it is suitable for clinical use in general populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.041 | 0.068 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".