The episodic nature of air pollution transport from Asia to North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global chemistry transport model (GCTM) to address the episodic nature of trans‐Pacific pollution. The strongest Asian CO episodes over North America (NA), occurring most frequently between February and May, are often associated with disturbances that entrain pollution over eastern Asia and amplify over the western Pacific Ocean. Using 55 ppb of Asian CO as a criterion for major events, we find that during a typical year three to five Asian pollution events analogous to those observed by Jaffe et al. [1999] are expected in the boundary layer all along the U.S. West Coast between February and May. In contrast to CO, Asia currently has a small impact on the magnitude and variability of background ozone arriving over NA from the west. Direct and indirect Asian contributions to episodic O 3 events over the western United States are generally in the 3–10 ppbv range. The two largest total O 3 events (>60 ppbv), while having trajectories which pass over Asia, show negligible impact from Asian emissions. However, this may change. A future emission scenario in which Asian NOx emissions increase by a factor of 4 from those in 1990 produces late spring ozone episodes at the surface of California with Asian contributions reaching 40 ppb. Such episodic contributions are certain to exacerbate local NA pollution events, especially in elevated areas more frequently exposed to free tropospheric and more heavily Asian‐influenced air.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".