Will Global Climate Change Reduce Thermal Stress in the Netherlands?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To the Editor: In the Netherlands, annual cold-related mortality is higher than heat-related mortality. The projected change in climate will influence both. 1 We analyzed the mortality changes related to the gradual influences of anthropogenic climate changes on health risk. As an anthropogenic climate change is likely to change the frequency or severity of heat waves and cold spells, we specifically looked at the effects of climate change on marked short-term fluctuations in weather. In an earlier paper, 2 we described the daily numbers of deaths due to all causes and to selected causes (malignant neoplasms, respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease) in relation to daily average temperature in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1997. We found that for each degree Celsius increase above the optimum temperature, mortality increased by 0.5% for malignant neoplasms, 1.9% for cardiovascular disease, 12.8% for respiratory diseases and 2.7% for total mortality. (Optimum temperature was 15.5°C for malignant neoplasms and 16.5°C for the other causes of death.) For temperatures below the optimum, mortality in the same categories decreased by 0.2%, 1.7%, 5.2%, and 1.4% for each degree Celsius increase. 2 In addition, there were substantial increases in mortality during both the cold spells and heat waves in the study period. 2 Average total excess mortality during the heat waves was 389.8 per heat wave (or 39.8 deaths per heat wave day), with death rates in the elderly and due to respiratory disease most affected. The average excess mortality during the cold spells was 718.5 (or 46.6 deaths per cold spell day), which was mostly attributable to the increase in cardiovascular mortality among the elderly. The results concerning the forward displacement of deaths due to heat waves were not conclusive. We found no cold-induced forward displacement of deaths. 2 We have estimated future changes in mortality rates due to global warming by combining these observed mortality risks accompanying temperature change with the projected changes in temperature estimated by nine General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs are powerful tools that provide physically realistic estimates of future climate. 3 As expected, “cold” winters are estimated to become much rarer with global warming, and “hot” summers become much more frequent. Modifying the temperature in the study period according to the GCMs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 550 ppm stabilization scenario (eg, approximate doubling of the pre-industrial level of greenhouse gases), the frequency of a cold spell would change from one in 4 years in the period 1979–1997 to one in 6 years in 2050. The number of heat waves would increase from one in every 3 years to one every 2 years. The extreme heat would also last for more consecutive days. Looking at changes in temperatures toward the year 2050, we see that in the Netherlands a continuing decreasing trend in winter mortality is more pronounced than the increasing excess summer mortality rates. Net yearly decreases in mortality rates vary between 0.9 and 1.6% for cardiovascular mortality, between 1.6 and 3.9% for respiratory mortality, and between 0.6 and 1.1% for total mortality (Figure 1). Mortality changes due to malignant neoplasm are relatively insensitive to temperature changes. In absolute numbers, total mortality may decrease approximately 1100 per year (on a total population of about 16 million people). The same trend towards a reduction in deaths with rising temperature is seen in scenarios where the concentration of greenhouse gasses is stabilized around 350 ppm or 750 ppm. FIGURE 1: Relative changes in Dutch mortality rates associated with changes in temperatures for deaths due to malignant neoplasms (MN), cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD) and total mortality between the years 1979–1997 and 2050, as simulated according to the results of nine GCMs (IPCC 550 ppm stabilization scenario: BMRC: Bureau of Meteorology Research Center; CCC: Canadian Centre for Climate Research; GFDL: Geophysics Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies; HEND: Henderson-Sellers; UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; UKMO: United Kingdom Meteorological Office; WANG: W-C. Wang et al.; WASH: Washington and Meehl – see Reference No. 3 for more details) .These results shed light on possible changes in mortality related to the global warming predicted by several climate models. Although global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, winters will likely be milder as well. Therefore, it is possible that in many temperate or cold regions, including the Netherlands, a decrease in cold-related mortality would counterbalance the increasing rates of heat-related mortality. However, the overall balance would also depend on adaptive responses (eg, air-conditioning, improved housing) and future health levels. Pim Martens Maud Huynen
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Editorial About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Not applicable | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Commentary About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Not applicable | medium |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".