A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Response rate (RR) alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD) could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR), which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR. METHODS: Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials) or Gehan (23 trials) designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (ralt = 0.2, rnul = 0.05). Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epdalt, epdnul): (0.4, 0.6) and (0.3, 0.5). RESULTS: Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (Hnul) after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6) than (0.3, 0.5). Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted Hnul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II. CONCLUSIONS: The DESR may reject Hnul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.232 | 0.884 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".