Spring arrivals of migrant waders in Iceland in the 20th century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Records of first sightings of Icelandic‐breeding waders and high‐Arctic passage migrants have been made in most parts of Iceland since 1902. Two sets of records of first sightings are used here to analyse temporal changes in arrival dates during the 20th century and the effects of weather conditions. First sightings became earlier in the first half of the 20th century, as local spring temperatures increased. They ceased to do so after 1960, when temperatures were decreasing slightly, though the associations between arrival dates and annual temperatures were weak. In years with more than five records for a species, the earliest sightings were 5–9 days before the median dates of all first sightings. Though earliest sightings were delayed in cool Icelandic springs, those median dates showed little correlation with local spring temperatures. Six species arrived later when the winter or spring values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were high, but seven species showed no significant associations with the winter NAO. Sightings tended to be later in springs in which westerly or cyclonic systems were prevalent over Ireland and Scotland. First sightings in Iceland were substantially later than in the Outer Hebrides, though in closer synchrony with the peaks of passage there than with arrival and passage dates in Shetland and north Norway. Sustained observations at a few key sites should be useful in tracking the responses of waders to variations in climate and other environmental changes.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".